Bitcoin continues to struggle at the 100-day moving average — but an upcoming decision by the Securities and Exchange Commission on the ProShares Bitcoin ETF could provide a bit of excitement to temporarily get the ball rolling.
Bitcoin Price Market Overview
August and September will be busy months for the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
On August 23, the SEC will either approve or deny the ProShares Bitcoin ETF application. A second decision is on the cards for September 15 regarding the GraniteShares Bitcoin ETF. Finally, September 30 is the date when the SEC will give its next decision on the recently delayed SolidX-VanEck Bitcoin ETF.
All of this is bound to create a stir in the market, so hold on to your hats and be ready.
As Bart Smith said last week, “Bitcoin is still in show me mode” — and after days of somewhat indecisive range-bound trading, buyers failed to show up and force a trend reversal.
After continuous rejections at the 100-day MA, BTC $6218.84 +0.14% posted an inside bar, leading to a bear flag and the current reversal which dropped BTC below the symmetrical triangle to $6,245. As mentioned previously, $6,300 and $6,230 provided ample support to prevent BTC from slipping to $6,100 and $6,000.
Currently, the weekly RSI remains above the ascending trendline from last weeks divergence and BTC will encounter resistance at $6,550, $6,600 and $6,800.
The current technical setup, along with upcoming current events, has the potential of pushing BTC prices above $6,600 and on towards $6,800 However, it’s possible that the prolonged sideways trading is a by-product of investors not taking up any high-risk positions as the general expectation is that the SEC will reject the ProShares BTC-ETF and bitcoin prices will plummet again — like they did after the SolidX-VanEck delay.
BTC shorts are currently at an all-time high, which also supports the assumption that the SEC is more likely to reject than approve the ProShares ETF.
BTC clearly wants to climb above $6,500 and the RSI and Stoch on the 1-hour, 4-hour and daily chart are supportive of this — but buyers just aren’t feeling confident enough to help push BTC to form a triple top at $6,645 and move on to $6,800.
Obviously, any positive news regarding the Bitcoin ETFs and SEC would be phenomenal for BTC price. A rejection could trigger another correction and it will be interesting to see if the $6,300 and $6,230 support levels hold.
After crossing $6,500 BTC needs to sustain above $6,645 and bulls will need to provide consistent volume.
A move to the key resistance at $6,800 would place BTC above the 38.2 percent Fib retracement level and back above the descending trendline.
While Bitcoin’s future does not rest solely on the approval or denial of an ETF, this news will impact price, so traders should all keep an eye on these developments, regardless of how one feels about the subject. If a denial pushes prices back below $6,000, at least there is a road map of resistances and supports to use for future swing trades.
[Disclaimer: The views expressed in this article are not intended as investment advice. Market data is provided by BITFINEX. The charts for analysis are provided by TradingView.]